How Realistic is Marc Marquez Winning the 2024 MotoGP Championship?

Marc Marquez may have shown race-winning potential in the first part of the 2024 MotoGP season, however, the likes of Francesco Bagnaia, Jorge Martin and even Enea Bastianini had too much extra spice aboard their Desmosedici GP24 bike - Marquez is riding last season’s GP23 machine.

But that is no longer the case after the eight-time world champion secured his second consecutive win, and this time in unlikely fashion.

In Aragon Marquez topped every session except warm-up before the grand prix, the caveat being that Marquez did not take part in the warm-up. Like in the sprint, Marquez then went on to dominate the competition, winning from start to finish in front of his adoring home fans. 

In Misano, it was a different story for the #93, who was quick throughout the weekend but didn’t show the same dominance. In fact, Marquez was firmly put on the backfoot compared to his fellow Ducati riders following a crash in qualifying which meant he could only start ninth.

But in true Marquez fashion, the former Honda rider was sensational when the conditions went from dry to damp. Marquez hauled himself back into contention as the lead riders slowed up, before taking the lead away from Bagnaia at the penultimate corner. The reigning world champion tried to stay close but Marquez was not to be denied. Bagnaia gained a huge amount of points back on Martin who made a bizarre decision to pit for wet tyres when the track was still dry, but regardless, should the factory Ducati rider be looking back at Marquez for the title?

Martin leads the championship by seven points from Bagnaia despite his blunder at Misano, but Marquez is now just 53 points from the series lead. There are still seven rounds to go which means a total of 14 races and Marquez has won three of the last four, which includes sprint races, since Aragon.

Now let’s not overreact - Martin and Bagnaia have been the two strongest riders all season and remain the firm favourites - but it would be unwise to rule out Marquez when he’s showing this kind of pace.

Marquez is the in-form rider, has the experience of multiple title fights and has never been stronger with regard to performance since his shoulder break in 2020. That is a recipe for huge success. Furthermore, Bagnaia and Martin have both shown that they can crack under pressure, something Marquez doesn’t tend to do.

And if you think Marquez doesn’t know that, think again. Marquez might not be the fastest rider in MotoGP when it comes to pure pace, but his race craft and ability to unnerve his opponents remains part of his DNA. When it’s crunch time and everything is on the line, you can bet that Marquez will hold his nerve. 

What could also help Marquez, if it’s a weekend where he has the upper hand over Bagnaia and/or Martin, is that other Ducati riders such as Franco Morbidelli and Alex Marquez are beginning to show enough pace to trouble those two. So that could lead to more points being taken away from his main rivals.

After being beaten by Marquez at Misano, Bagnaia admitted he wasn’t ‘incisive’ enough, which is not a concern by any means, but again it’s part of the mind games that Marquez will prey on.

Bagnaia said: “Marc (Márquez) ended up being the stronger and braver of us all. I did all I could to stay with him and had a shot at the lead on a couple of occasions at the ‘Curvone’ corner, but I was never incisive enough to make it happen.”

Marquez also has the consistency needed to track down the likes of Bagnaia and Martin, as the 31-year-old has finished in the points 11 out of 13 times during Grand Prix races this season, while also finishing inside four in the last five rounds since Assen.

The numbers are pretty simple, Marquez would need to win every race (including sprints) if Martin was to finish second. 259 points remain on the table and finishing second in every race from now until Valencia would equal 203 - Martin's lead over Marquez is 53.

But while Marquez winning every race is unlikely, that’s also true about Martin and Bagnaia finishing second and third in all 14 races that remain. DNF’s have played a big role already in this title fight and there’s no reason to think Martin or Bagnaia won’t fall victim to that once more. Marquez is 20/1 to win the title according to the bookies, so clearly they believe it’s a mountain to climb. Compare that to Martin on 21/20 and Bagnaia’s 11/10.

Whatever happens between now and the end of the season, a title fight going down to the wire in Valencia seems to be on the cards, but Marquez will need a big end of the season if he’s to catapult himself into the mix.

Find all the latest motorcycle news on Visordown.com.