The Maths Behind The 2024 MotoGP Finale

Jorge Martin leads two-time defending MotoGP champion Francesco Bagnaia by a comfortable 24 points with just this weekend’s finale at Barcelona to come.

That means Martin only needs to outscore Bagnaia in the sprint by two points or more to be confirmed as the 2024 champion before even starting the Grand Prix on Sunday.

But if the gap remains 24 or less following the sprint then Bagnaia will still be in with a shot of the title on Sunday. Aiding Martin to get the job done before Sunday’s finale is his impeccable sprint record.

Martin was the most successful sprint rider in 2023 - the first year of sprint races in MotoGP - and that has carried over into 2024 as Martin has won seven sprints this season, although Bagnaia has more Grand Prix wins to his name.

For Bagnaia it’s pretty clear, he must outscore Martin by more than 24 points over the entire weekend. The factory Ducati rider won the Grand Prix in Valencia to finish last season’s campaign, while he also clinched victory at Barcelona earlier this season, the same venue as this weekend’s finale.

Martin can afford to finish behind Bagnaia in both races and give up no more than 24 points overall, because Bagnaia would take the title if they finished on identical points due to having more Grand Prix wins.

One scenario, although somewhat unlikely, which would crown Bagnaia champion, is if he wins both races and Martin finishes outside the points in the sprint and fourth or lower in the Grand Prix.

In 2022 Bagnaia overhauled a 91-point gap to Fabio Quartararo in the final ten races, but while that was a brilliant and miraculous comeback at the time - it was and remains the biggest margin a rider has recovered to win the title, the chances of outsourcing Martin by more than 23 points in one round looks to be a seriously tough task.

Sprint race permutations