Can Anyone Threaten Ducati’s 2025 MotoGP Dominance?

Ducati’s performances throughout the 2024 MotoGP season were unlike anything we’ve ever seen before as both its full factory riders and satellite stars Marc Marquez (who has now joined the factory Lenovo team) and Jorge Martin (who has left Ducati for Aprilia) took it in turns to wins races and thoroughly destroy the competition.

Martin and Francesco Bagnaia were the most successful riders, which is why the pair contested the title until the final race of the season in Barcelona, while Marquez and new KTM rider Enea Bastianini also claimed multiple Grand Prix wins.

As a result of its stunning performances week-in-and-week-out, Ducati went on to win 19 out of 20 Grand Prix, with only Maverick Vinales and Aprilia able to stop the Italian brand from making it a clean sweep - Vinales won both the sprint and Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas, in Texas.

Aprilia would make sense as the manufacturer to go with in terms of being Ducati’s biggest challenger going forward, as its Grand Prix success this past season and in 2023 means it's the only brand outside of Ducati to win a Sunday race in both the last two seasons.

Aprilia won twice in 2023 while Honda claimed an unlikely win thanks to Alex Rins at the Circuit of the Americas, which left Ducati as the winner99 of the remaining 17 out of 20 races.

Another reason why Aprilia seems like the obvious candidate to challenge Ducati in a major way is its new star-studded factory team line-up, with the 2024 MotoGP champion Martin joining the team alongside Marco Bezzecchi.

Both representing the future and present of MotoGP given their performances over the last few seasons, Martin and Bezzecchi are arguably the second-best pairing behind Marc Marquez and Bagnaia.

Aprilia also has a strong satellite team with Raul Fernandez remaining at the team alongside rookie Ai Ogura for 2025. But just because Martin and Bezzecchi have joined Aprilia, it doesn’t mean they are destined for success.

KTM is a clear example of that after it added Jack Miller to its squad at the beginning of 2023, as it expected to form one of the best duos on the grid with Brad Binder.

But after strong 2021 and 2022 seasons KTM, who was expected to take that next step and become the main challenger to Ducati, has instead fallen behind Aprilia and has not won a Grand Prix for over two years.

KTM’s financial concerns heading into 2025 mean it could be in for a tough time going forward with its MotoGP project which has already led to pausing its development, although it possesses one of the best four-rider lineups on the grid with Binder joined at the factory team by Pedro Acosta. Joining Bastianini at Tech3 is Vinales, so from a talent point of view KTM would have normally been my pick.

However, the uncertainty surrounding the brand could impact things, which is why Yamaha is my, somewhat surprising, pick to become Ducati’s main rival going forward. That might not be the case in 2025, but beyond that, watch this space when it comes to Yamaha.

I also say surprising because if you asked me this question midway through the 2024 campaign I would have said Aprilia or KTM without hesitation. But the end to last season was very, very strong for the Japanese brand and Fabio Quartararo and Rins seemed to make a big jump forward.

In addition, Yamaha now has a second team on the grid, with Miller and Miguel Oliveira moving to Pramac, who have left Ducati for M1 machinery. Yamaha’s attempts to become a force once again in MotoGP have been huge of late, and that’s been clear in terms of development but also the commitment it's making to its riders and the team members that have been signed from the likes of Ducati in recent years.

Quartararo was signed to a new two-year contract worth €12m per season, highlighting just how much Yamaha wanted to retain its star rider, not just because he is exactly that, but because it believes it will be back fighting for titles very soon.

On top of all that, Yamaha is also moving away from its traditional inline-four engine concept to adapt the V4 to its bikes, and this is important because the V4 engine has been dominating MotoGP more and more of late.

Sure, Yamaha won the title in 2021, but since then it's been a very difficult period for the Iwata-based brand and it believes the inline-four’s weaknesses against the V4 have been a major reason why.

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